Tuesday, December 5, 2006

Watch list changes

Today I added two names to my watch list and removed two others. For those of you unfamiliar with watch lists basically this is a list of stocks I'm currently keeping my eyes on and doing homework on. The stocks I keep on this list I have good feelings about, but I either feel that this is currently not a good entry point or I don't feel so strongly about the stock that I'm willing to abandon any of my current positions. You'll probably find that 90% of the new positions I initiate are put on my watch list first.

With that being said, here are the two names I removed from my watch list. I removed Bank of America (BAC) from my watch list because the CFO resigned. Typically any time a CEO or CFO resigns (or any important member of an institution for that matter) I typically shy away from it. Sometimes I miss out of good moves that way, but typically anytime an executive resigns that means there is some unknown bad news, and I don't like dealing with the unknown, so I don't go with the risk. The second name was Coach (COH), which had been on my watch list for a while. The reason I removed it was that it's had a 12 point move in the last 3 months, going from 31 to 43. That's a huge jump and I believe that most of the easy money has already been made. I obviously wish I'd gotten in much earlier to see that gain, but I had other picks I liked more at the time.

The new names? First is Oakley (OO), I believe that this stock will make it to the low to mid 30s, and I've been actually watching it for about a month now but didn't 'officially' add it to my list until today. This one is already at the upper end of 19 (it started the day at 19.23 when I added it). Still, a 2-3 point gain is pretty significant on a 19 dollar stock, and I believe that's where it's headed on a value basis. The downside is it's had a big run, particularly in the last 5 days or so, and I would be hesitant to deploy any capital until it digests its recent gains or pulls back a little. I also added Smithfield Foods, also as a value play. Unlike Oakley though, this one has actually been on a downturn for a while and has actually been building a nice base for about 2 months. It sells at a P/E discount to its peers, and I believe that it will move up nicely sometime in the near future. It's been hitting resistance at 27 repeatedly, so I'll be watching for this one to break through 27 before I will consider buying it. Once it does I think it will make it to the low 30s before it catches up to its peers in food processing.

I won't divulge all of the names on my watch list, but there are about 20 and I will make updates as I remove some or add more.

-Rizen

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