Today was a slightly up day for all the major indexes with around a .15-.3% increase across the board. We had a dip in the open into some terrorism scare in NYC where there was a 'gas smell' I guess. The market finished strong and my portfolio was up about .75% for the day.
Most of the strength was due to VDSI spiking sharper on a positive report from Investors Business Daily today, and the bounce in HLF I was speaking of on Friday. After completely tanking Friday to the tune of about 23% by the end of the day, it bounced back close to 8% today. That's not near the amount of the loss on Friday, but the inevitable bounce I spoke of came today. A few analysts released reports saying the selloff was very overdone and reiterated their price targets as well. I'm less bullish about the stock than I used to be, but I still believe there is some upside so I'm holding on for now.
I closed out 4 trades this morning in BUD for a less than 1% loss, in MYGN for a 1.5% loss, in OGE for a 1.25% loss, and in WY for a 1.5% loss. Not a good day for trades getting stopped out, despite the overall portfolio performance. I also initiated short term trades in ROP and SIX.
That was it though, pretty much a quiet day. The indexes didn't move that much and I've done most of the buying I wanted to in the weakness in the last week or so. Nothing really happened today to change my overall outlook, although earnings season is nearly upon us and MacWorld starts soon, so I expect the coming weeks to be pretty busy for me.
-Rizen
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3 comments:
Rizen - This is going to be kind of long. I was going to send it to you as an email, but didn't see any way to email you from either of your blogs.
Since what I'm going to say may sound critical or discouraging, let me start by saying that if there's anyone who can prove my general conclusion wrong, its you. I have a ton of respect for your poker playing ability, your approach to the game, and to life in general (at least from what I can tell based on what you write).
That said, here's my question...
When it comes to investing, where is your edge?
Reading your blog posts, its clear that you've learned a ton about the stock market and many individual companies. You think things through logically, diversify, have good money management skills, check your positions often, and make changes where necessary. I'm not sure all of that is going to make your results any better than anyone else's.
The problem in the stock market is that unlike poker, people (and companies) can invest as much as they want (for practical purposes) in any position where they feel that there's an inefficiency or an edge to be exploited. This results in most inefficiencies (potential edges) disappearing very quickly, and unless you're the person who has better information than anyone else, you're probably not going to have the opportunity to profit from the edge. I'm certainly NOT a proponent of the 'random walk hypothesis', but I think it's a LOT tougher to find the edges than people think, and from your blog (and I'll admit I've only read some of your posts) I don't see any explanation of your approach that shows where your edge is coming from.
-Zoobird
P.S. Don't be so results oriented! You're posting your % profit every day. With the stock market (much more than poker in my opinion) variance and small sample size make it incredibly hard to know whether performance is random or not. More thoughts on this later, but I have to go now.
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